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      <record key="001" att1="001" value="LIB900220004" att2="LIB900220004">001   LIB900220004</record>
      <field key="037" subkey="x">englisch</field>
      <field key="050" subkey="x">Forschungsbericht</field>
      <field key="076" subkey="">Ökonomie</field>
      <field key="079" subkey="y">http://www.ihs.ac.at/publications/ihsfo/fo112.pdf</field>
      <field key="079" subkey="z">schleicher, stefan, forecasting with large scale econometric systems (pdf)</field>
      <field key="100" subkey="">schleicher, stefan</field>
      <field key="331" subkey="">forecasting with large scale econometric systems</field>
      <field key="403" subkey="">1. ed.</field>
      <field key="410" subkey="">wien</field>
      <field key="412" subkey="">institut fuer hoehere studien</field>
      <field key="425" subkey="">1976, november</field>
      <field key="433" subkey="">45 pp.</field>
      <field key="451" subkey="">institut fuer hoehere studien; forschungsberichte; 112</field>
      <field key="544" subkey="">IHSFO 112</field>
      <field key="753" subkey="">abstract (introduction): large scale econometric systems cause special problems for estimation, forecasting, and control. common</field>
      <field key="fea" subkey="t">ure of large scale systems is a hierarchical structure which recommends to make use of decentralized procedures in system</field>
      <field key="app" subkey="l">ications. the paper investigates the characteristic features of hierarchical systems and focuses on decentralized solution</field>
      <field key="and" subkey="">forecasting methods. the concepts developed serve as a starting point for other system applications like the investigation of</field>
      <field key="sto" subkey="c">hastic system properties or optimal control experiments. all results stress the importance of stochastic aspects in the</field>
      <field key="ana" subkey="l">ysis of large scale systems. hierarchical systems are characterized by a number of subsystems which are connected via</field>
      <field key="int" subkey="e">raction channels. due to these interactions a forecast produced by the individual subsystems in general will not meet some</field>
      <field key="ove" subkey="r">all system constraints. in case of a world trade model, e.g., the import forecasts of the individual countriesbased on their</field>
      <field key="ass" subkey="u">mptions about export demand might not add up to the volume of world trade calculated either by adding up country imports or</field>
      <field key="add" subkey="i">ng up country exports. therefore the role of a coordinator has to be defined to take into account the interactions between</field>
      <field key="the" subkey="">subsystems. attempts to formulate a statistical forecasting theory for hierarchical systems indicate that the advantages of a</field>
      <field key="dec" subkey="e">ntralized decision process in a forecasting procedure depend on the information structure of the system. in case of an</field>
      <field key="imp" subkey="r">oper information exchange either no forecast is found which meets all system restrictions or the coordinator "wipes out" the</field>
      <field key="sub" subkey="s">ystem forecasts. based on kalman filter theory suggestions are made for the information exchange between the subsystems and a</field>
      <field key="coo" subkey="r">dinator in a forecasting exercise. explicitely the relative precision of the subsystem forecasts and the coordinator is taken</field>
      <field key="int" subkey="o">account. a number of potential applications become evident for the link system - aworldwide research project to study the</field>
      <field key="int" subkey="e">rnational transmission of economic fluctuations by linking national econometric models. the basic research strategy of link</field>
      <field key="str" subkey="e">sses the importance of the model builders' knowledge in the process of model specification and model application. the theory</field>
      <field key="of" subkey="d">ecentralized solution procedures for large scale systems provides us with a better understanding of the present information</field>
      <field key="exc" subkey="h">ange pattern used within the link system and with proposals for improve</field>
    </SEQUENTIAL>
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