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      <record key="001" att1="001" value="175244" att2="175244">001   175244</record>
      <field key="037" subkey="x">englisch</field>
      <field key="050" subkey="x">Open Access</field>
      <field key="076" subkey="">Ökonomie</field>
      <field key="079" subkey="y">http://www.ihs.ac.at/publications/lib/oa5.pdf</field>
      <field key="079" subkey="z">Wagner, Martin - et al., CEEC Growth Projections: Certainly Necessary and Necessarily Uncertain (pdf)</field>
      <field key="100" subkey="">Wagner, Martin</field>
      <field key="103" subkey="">Department of Economics, University of Bern</field>
      <field key="104" subkey="a">Hlouskova, Jaroslava</field>
      <field key="107" subkey="">Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna</field>
      <field key="331" subkey="">CEEC Growth Projections: Certainly Necessary and Necessarily Uncertain</field>
      <field key="403" subkey="">1. Ed.</field>
      <field key="410" subkey="">Bern, Switzerland</field>
      <field key="412" subkey="">Volkswirtschaftliches Institut, Universität Bern</field>
      <field key="425" subkey="">2004, February</field>
      <field key="433" subkey="">32 pp.</field>
      <field key="451" subkey="">Diskussionsschriften; 04-03</field>
      <field key="451" subkey="i">Volkswirtschaftliches Institut, Universität Bern (Ed.)</field>
      <field key="544" subkey="">OA5</field>
      <field key="700" subkey="">F02</field>
      <field key="700" subkey="">O40</field>
      <field key="700" subkey="">O57</field>
      <field key="700" subkey="">P21</field>
      <field key="700" subkey="">P27</field>
      <field key="720" subkey="">Real convergence</field>
      <field key="720" subkey="">Transition economies</field>
      <field key="720" subkey="">Growth projections</field>
      <field key="720" subkey="">Uncertainty analysis</field>
      <field key="753" subkey="">Abstract: In this paper we discuss the necessity for an indirect approach to assess the growth and convergence prospects of ten</field>
      <field key="Cen" subkey="t">ral and Eastern European countries (CEEC10). The necessity for an indirect approach arises for two reasons. First, the</field>
      <field key="ong" subkey="o">ing structural changes in the transition economies imply that their growth process is not yet adequately described by the</field>
      <field key="lon" subkey="g">-run growth forces as identified by (neoclassical) growth theory. Second, their upcoming European Union membership hasto be</field>
      <field key="tak" subkey="e">n into account in growth projections. The indirect approach proposed in this paper is to base the growth projections for the</field>
      <field key="CEE" subkey="C">10 on growth equations estimated for the incumbent EU member states. Thus, in effect we propose a calibration approach. Our</field>
      <field key="stu" subkey="d">y differs from previous studies that employ an indirect approach in two ways. First, we estimate growth equations for the EU</field>
      <field key="and" subkey="">not for a large world-wide country data set that contains many heterogeneous countries that are essentially unrelated to the</field>
      <field key="CEE" subkey="C">s. Second, we assess the uncertainty inherent in growth projections by estimating a variety of economically meaningful</field>
      <field key="equ" subkey="a">tions and by specifying a variety of plausible scenarios for the explanatory variables. This results in distributions of</field>
      <field key="pro" subkey="j">ected growth rates, which allow for an uncertainty analysis. Besides growth rate distributions also convergence times</field>
      <field key="dis" subkey="t">ributions are computed.;</field>
    </SEQUENTIAL>
  </section>