<section name="raw">
    <SEQUENTIAL>
      <record key="001" att1="001" value="167688" att2="167688">001   167688</record>
      <field key="037" subkey="x">englisch</field>
      <field key="050" subkey="x">Forschungsbericht</field>
      <field key="076" subkey="">Ökonomie</field>
      <field key="079" subkey="y">http://www.ihs.ac.at/publications/eco/es-214.pdf</field>
      <field key="079" subkey="z">Skriner, Edith, Forecasting Global Flows (pdf)</field>
      <field key="079" subkey="y">http://ideas.repec.org/p/ihs/ihsesp/214.html</field>
      <field key="079" subkey="z">Institute for Advanced Studies. Economics Series; 214 (RePEc)</field>
      <field key="100" subkey="">Skriner, Edith</field>
      <field key="103" subkey="">Department of Economics and Finance, Institute for Advanced Studies, Vienna, Austria</field>
      <field key="331" subkey="">Forecasting Global Flows</field>
      <field key="403" subkey="">1. Ed.</field>
      <field key="410" subkey="">Wien</field>
      <field key="412" subkey="">Institut für Höhere Studien</field>
      <field key="425" subkey="">2007, July</field>
      <field key="433" subkey="">38 pp.</field>
      <field key="451" subkey="">Institut für Höhere Studien; Reihe Ökonomie; 214</field>
      <field key="451" subkey="h">Kunst, Robert M. (Ed.) ; Fisher, Walter (Assoc. Ed.) ; Ritzberger, Klaus (Assoc. Ed.)</field>
      <field key="461" subkey="">Economics Series</field>
      <field key="517" subkey="c">from the Table of Contents: Introduction; Background; Determinants of global growth; Data; Model estimation; Forecasting;</field>
      <field key="Eva" subkey="l">uation of forecasts; Conclusion; References;</field>
      <field key="542" subkey="">1605-7996</field>
      <field key="544" subkey="">IHSES 214</field>
      <field key="700" subkey="">F17</field>
      <field key="700" subkey="">C22</field>
      <field key="700" subkey="">C5</field>
      <field key="720" subkey="">International economics</field>
      <field key="720" subkey="">Time series models</field>
      <field key="720" subkey="">Forecasts</field>
      <field key="720" subkey="">Forecast evaluation</field>
      <field key="753" subkey="">Abstract: The theory suggests that investment activities and monetary policy influence the development of the global business</field>
      <field key="cyc" subkey="l">e. The oil price and other raw material prices also play a key role in the economic development and there is a co-movement</field>
      <field key="amo" subkey="n">g oil consumption and global output. Therefore, the aim of this study is to explain the development of this set of variables</field>
      <field key="by" subkey="A">Rs, small-scale VARs and ECMs. The lag length and the rank of the time series models have been determined using information</field>
      <field key="cri" subkey="t">eria. Then one-step ahead forecasts have been generated. It was found, that the ARs generate the best forecasts at the</field>
      <field key="beg" subkey="i">nning of the forecasting horizon. However, when the forecasting horizon increases the VARs outperform the ARs. Comparing the</field>
      <field key="for" subkey="e">casting performance of the ECMs, it was found that the forecasting ability of the ECMs in first differences outperform the</field>
      <field key="lev" subkey="e">l based ECMs when the forecasting horizon increases.;</field>
    </SEQUENTIAL>
  </section>